# COVID 19 Topics

1. Should the US help other countries?
 - Prevent worsening conditions abroad
 - Feeds back to US, creates travel issues
 - Prevent reduction of demand for international business

 - Unknown length of lockdown
 - What resources might become scarce?
 - Chance to create a diplomatic contract / gain leverage


2. Is the threat being exaggerated?

 - What are the error margins?
  - comorbidity is a factor, but how is this taken into account in post-mortem analyses
  - What is the testing method - is it simply testing for the presence of the virus, or is it by making a determination as to the primary cause of death
  - Respiratory distress from pollution is a big killer - how is it differentiated from other factors?
  - Is the fact of declining deaths from pollution going to possibly create any anomalies for the aggregation and discernment of covid 19 deaths?
  - What is the accuracy in differentiating from flu deaths? Supposedly 9-15% of "flu" deaths are due to coronavirus, or involve patients who carried a coronavirus at the time of death
  - Car accidents are also declining, as well as other accidental deaths, and, for now, possibly homicide

3. Bias factors

  - Prestige for virologists, data scientists, epidemiologists,
  - Political figures benefit because a crisis increases the weight of their words and, in some cases, can extend their term.
  - Political initiatives are borne out of crises
  - Convince the public
  - Convince yourself of your duty - can be a good thing, but how can that possibly affect negatively or move one away from reason?

4. General Bias
  - Excuse to lower expectations: socially, professionally, from family, of self
  - ultimate get out of jail free card
  - Chance to rethink values and priorities
  - Drama - excitement / purpose / meaning
  - Source of material for moral platitudes
  - MOral busybodies - tell others what they should do
  - Any failure can be blamed on your nemesis / pet peeve
    - socialists are to blame / capitalism did this / government/ China / etc
  - Participating in narratives is a way of signalling to your group
    - Aligned with political group, local community, profession
  - Do not wish to be seen as foolish, thus agree with most credible sounding or shame potentiating narrative out of fear
  - Provide fuel to change living standards
  - Fuel for changing working conditions - work from home, save time and energy in professional life

So many factors in making analysis about events for which data does not even exist yet

# CHINA
- Most data steering policy and reaction came from China - not trustworth
- Already authoritarian, thus can invoke some measures without the same repercussions. Benefit by stifling dissent. 
- Fewer consequences to poor economic performance
- Does not affect elections
- Increase trust or reliance on their experts
- Praised by international organizations, like the WHO and the US.