Ivor_Ultimate_COVID_decode.md 2.4 KB
The Ultimate COVID-19 Decoding
85-90% Americans susceptible to SARS-CoV2
NYT 9/30/2020
- Referenced Dr. Chris Murray
- Epidemic models downplaying potential for herd immunity
Analysis of Europe Deaths
In Northern temperate regions like North America, Europe, you get a GOMPERTZ curve. The reason is that when the virus comes in new, it hits around 20% of the population. 80% defacto immune through T-Cell and mucosal immunity (Cross reactive immunity). 1 in 5 will be less immune, and will have more difficulty with the new virus.
GOMPERTZ
Classic curve with example clearly laid out in 1918 Spanish Flu statistics, both with cases and deaths.
Seasonality Made Simple
2020 Virus trigger with GOMPERTZ style curve Opened with no vaccine in early May Rates stayed low through summer Small peak in October Trigger in Winter - GOMPERTZ independent of measures
- WHO in July 2020 put out bulletin saying SARS-CoV2 infection is not seasonal
Seasonality
In terms of immunity, based on Beta Stadler (Swiss Immunologist)
Immunity
Professor Beta Stadler was saying ~80% were defacto immune
2nd season
cumulative cases with massive testing - 64k positives per million people
now, if you take that figure you see that over 2 full seasons rolled up total we had 6 in 100 people register a positive. Would not have been spreading in a significant way
Excess Mortality
Crucial Measure of any pandemic Can't use PCR tests or positives - must look at the impacts Cuonted
Excess Deaths (2018, Flu season, 140)
Euromomo shows from 60million people in 2018 was 140 thousand people - normal value
If you look at 2020 April, you see the big spike. But you've got to note that there was an exceedingly low death rate in teh 2019 season and the run up to April in 2020. That wuld have lead to al ot of frail, susceptible people who would normally have passed in a normal flu season not passing. A stockpile of people who are susceptible to passing from any respiratory disease. So yes, COVID came and gave a larger spike, but when you add up to the total impact, it was 180K, which is nor markedly different from 2018. Less than what you would see in some prior years over the past decades.
The impact in excess deaths over waht you'd expect normally is not that dissimilary to differnt years.
Compared to Spanish Flu
Corrected for population, the spike in 1918 was beyond anyhing we can detec tnow, i