According to epidemiological theory when you infect an area, it's called seeding, the time from which an infected person anters a community until you visibly have a surge of infections, an d death, that time is extremely sensitive to where you do it - the culture, how people behave, how old they are, such that aeverytime you calculate this, you find a time lag that caries by weeks or months or even years. It's going to be copletely different and very sensitive tot he cicumstances