Corona-Malcolm.md 2.9 KB
COVID 19 Topics
Should the US help other countries?
- Prevent worsening conditions abroad
- Feeds back to US, creates travel issues
Prevent reduction of demand for international business
Unknown length of lockdown
What resources might become scarce?
Chance to create a diplomatic contract / gain leverage
Is the threat being exaggerated?
- What are the error margins?
- comorbidity is a factor, but how is this taken into account in post-mortem analyses
- What is the testing method - is it simply testing for the presence of the virus, or is it by making a determination as to the primary cause of death
- Respiratory distress from pollution is a big killer - how is it differentiated from other factors?
- Is the fact of declining deaths from pollution going to possibly create any anomalies for the aggregation and discernment of covid 19 deaths?
- What is the accuracy in differentiating from flu deaths? Supposedly 9-15% of "flu" deaths are due to coronavirus, or involve patients who carried a coronavirus at the time of death
- Car accidents are also declining, as well as other accidental deaths, and, for now, possibly homicide
Bias factors
- Prestige for virologists, data scientists, epidemiologists,
- Political figures benefit because a crisis increases the weight of their words and, in some cases, can extend their term.
- Political initiatives are borne out of crises
- Convince the public
- Convince yourself of your duty - can be a good thing, but how can that possibly affect negatively or move one away from reason?
General Bias
- Excuse to lower expectations: socially, professionally, from family, of self
- ultimate get out of jail free card
- Chance to rethink values and priorities
- Drama - excitement / purpose / meaning
- Source of material for moral platitudes
- MOral busybodies - tell others what they should do
- Any failure can be blamed on your nemesis / pet peeve
- socialists are to blame / capitalism did this / government/ China / etc
- Participating in narratives is a way of signalling to your group
- Aligned with political group, local community, profession
- Do not wish to be seen as foolish, thus agree with most credible sounding or shame potentiating narrative out of fear
- Provide fuel to change living standards
- Fuel for changing working conditions - work from home, save time and energy in professional life
So many factors in making analysis about events for which data does not even exist yet
CHINA
- Most data steering policy and reaction came from China - not trustworth
- Already authoritarian, thus can invoke some measures without the same repercussions. Benefit by stifling dissent.
- Fewer consequences to poor economic performance
- Does not affect elections
- Increase trust or reliance on their experts
- Praised by international organizations, like the WHO and the US.